Refinery Bottlenecks Sustain High Fuel Costs Six Months Into Conflict

Six months into the conflict between the United States and Iran, the impact on the average consumer is becoming increasingly entrenched. While global crude oil markets have shown a surprising degree of resilience, domestic fuel costs in the United States remain under significant upward pressure. Regular gasoline prices are holding above $4 per gallon, while diesel—the lifeblood of the national supply chain—remains priced above $5.60 per gallon. This disparity is largely attributed to refinery bottlenecks that have been exacerbated by the war. Before the conflict, approximately 20% of the world’s crude oil and a significant portion of refined products transited the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption of this flow has forced a recalibration of global supply chains. Analysts note that even if crude oil flows were to normalize, the downstream infrastructure issues, including refinery capacity and distribution logistics, will likely keep fuel prices high for the foreseeable future. The economic ripple effects are being felt across multiple sectors, as the cost of transporting goods continues to contribute to broader inflationary pressures. As the war drags on, the focus is shifting from immediate supply shocks to the long-term structural challenges of maintaining energy security in a fragmented global market.