ITC Report Warns of Fertilizer Shortages as Hormuz Transit Dwindles

The International Trade Centre (ITC), in a joint analysis with the WTO and UNCTAD, released a report on August 4, 2026, detailing the catastrophic impact of the Strait of Hormuz disruption on global trade beyond the energy sector. The most striking finding is a 95% drop in natural gas exports through the waterway, which has sent shockwaves through global industrial and agricultural markets. The Strait is responsible for a significant share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows and approximately one-third of the world's globally traded urea, a critical component for fertilizers. The disruption has exposed the extreme vulnerability of global supply chains to a single maritime chokepoint. According to the ITC, the sharp fall in fertilizer exports is already beginning to impact agricultural productivity in regions heavily dependent on Middle Eastern imports, potentially leading to a global food security crisis. Industrial products and fertilizers have seen export volumes collapse as shipping companies avoid the region due to the threat of drone attacks and naval skirmishes. The report notes that while oil prices often dominate the headlines, the secondary effects on the fertilizer and gas markets may have a more prolonged impact on global inflation and economic stability. Shipping data showed that traffic through the Strait dwindled to just 33 vessels between Monday and Thursday of this week, compared to a weekly average of 50 earlier in the year. The U.N. analysis suggests that the 'trade shock' from the Hormuz closure is unprecedented in the modern era, surpassing the disruptions seen during previous regional conflicts. For investors, the current environment underscores the importance of monitoring non-oil commodities, as the scarcity of urea and natural gas could lead to significant price spikes in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors. The ITC has called for urgent diplomatic efforts to reopen the waterway to commercial traffic, warning that the window to prevent a major global supply chain failure is closing.