Pre-Market Briefing — Friday, Jul 24, 2026\n\n## 1. Overnight Hormuz Activity\nThe strategic situation in the Strait of Hormuz has reached a critical inflection point over the last 18 hours. Overnight, the United States military completed its 13th consecutive night of kinetic strikes against Iranian military infrastructure. According to US Central Command (CENTCOM), the operations concluded shortly before 5:00 AM local time and targeted missile launch sites and command-and-control nodes in Qeshm and Bandar Abbas. The strikes are specifically designed to degrade the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy’s ability to threaten commercial traffic and to restore the flow through the world’s most vital energy chokepoint. In response, Iranian state media reported multiple explosions near the port of Bandar Abbas and in the northwest regions of Andimeshk and Firuzabad. The IRGC has issued a formal declaration claiming that the Strait is now 'fully closed' to all international shipping, asserting that any attempt to transit without prior coordination with Tehran will be met with 'forceful retaliation.' Intelligence reports suggest that daily traffic through the waterway has plummeted from its pre-conflict average of 100 vessels to fewer than 30, as major tanker operators have suspended transits following the mining of shipping routes south of the Strait.\n\n## 2. Asian Session Oil Moves (Brent & WTI levels, drivers)\nEnergy markets in the Asian session have reacted with high volatility to the collapse of the June peace agreement and the intensification of US-Iran hostilities. Brent crude futures surged over 6% during the session, officially breaching the psychological $100 threshold to trade at $100.06 per barrel. This represents a multi-month high and effectively erases all gains from the temporary ceasefire agreement signed earlier this summer. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) followed suit, climbing 4.8% to settle near $90.95 per barrel. The primary driver is the combined threat to the two dominant maritime chokepoints: the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb. Houthi militants in Yemen, acting as Iranian proxies, claimed responsibility overnight for successful missile strikes on two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea. This dual-front threat has forced a massive re-pricing of the global geopolitical risk premium. Analysts note that the market is no longer pricing in just 'fear,' but the physical reality of a 70% reduction in regional crude throughput.\n\n## 3. Three Things to Watch at the US Open\n1. The Revocation of Oil Licenses: Markets are bracing for the formal impact of the US Treasury’s decision to revoke the specialized licenses previously granted for the production and sale of Iranian crude. These licenses, which were part of the interim Trump-Pezeshkian MOU, had allowed Iranian exports to stabilize near 1.5 million bpd. Their removal, effective immediately, threatens to remove significant physical supply from the market just as summer demand peaks.\n2. Saudi and GCC Response: Following the Houthi hits on Saudi tankers, all eyes are on Riyadh. Should the Kingdom announce a temporary suspension of exports via the Red Sea Petroline, global supply chains will be pushed into a deficit that the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) cannot alone mitigate. Any statement from the Saudi Energy Ministry during the New York morning will be a primary volatility trigger.\n3. Defense Market Positioning: The intensification of the '13-night strike' campaign has put US defense contractors back in the spotlight. Watch for heavy volume in equities like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon as the Pentagon requests supplemental funding for maritime security operations and the replenishment of munitions used in the ongoing Persian Gulf campaign.\n\n## Risk Trigger Board\n* Brent Crude: Resistance at $105.00; Support at $98.50.\n* WTI Crude: Resistance at $94.00; Support at $88.20.\n* Strait Status: Contested/Closed. IRGC claiming full control; US Navy conducting freedom of navigation (FONOP) strikes.\n* Shipping Risk: Red Sea and Gulf of Aden categorized as 'Extreme Risk.' Insurance premiums have soared to 1.5% of hull value.\n* Diplomatic: The Pezeshkian-Trump MOU is considered defunct. No high-level talks are scheduled.\n\nDesk positioning note: We are maintaining maximum long exposure to Brent futures and regional defense ETFs while recommending total divestment from Persian Gulf-exposed shipping equities until the 14th night of strikes concludes.